How Attorneys Evaluate Your Personal Injury Case Value

Every personal injury case begins with a question: what is this case worth? The answer is never a single number pulled from a formula. It is the product of structured analysis that weighs dozens of variables against each other — liability strength, damages severity, jury demographics, insurance coverage limits, and the costs of going to trial versus settling.

Experienced attorneys use a disciplined framework to evaluate cases. Understanding how that framework works helps you make informed decisions about your own claim.

The Three Pillars of Case Valuation

Case valuation rests on three interconnected pillars. Weakness in any one of them affects the overall value.

Liability: How Strong Is the Fault Argument?

The first question is whether the other party was legally responsible for your injury. Clear liability — a rear-end collision where the other driver was texting — strengthens your case significantly. Disputed liability — an intersection accident where both drivers claim the light was green — introduces uncertainty.

Attorneys assess liability by examining police reports, witness statements, physical evidence, traffic camera footage, expert accident reconstruction reports, and applicable traffic laws or safety regulations. The stronger the liability evidence, the higher the case value.

Missouri's pure comparative fault system means even partial fault does not eliminate your claim, but it does reduce the expected recovery. If an attorney estimates a jury might assign you 30 percent fault, the case value calculation must reflect a 30 percent reduction in any expected award.

Damages: How Severe Are the Injuries?

Damages drive the numbers. Attorneys evaluate both economic damages — the quantifiable financial losses — and non-economic damages — the human impact of the injury.

Economic damages include medical expenses (past and future), lost wages, lost earning capacity, and out-of-pocket costs. These are supported by documentation: medical bills, employment records, and expert projections.

Non-economic damages — pain and suffering, emotional distress, loss of enjoyment of life — require more judgment. Attorneys consider the nature of the injury, its permanence, its impact on daily activities, and the quality of evidence available to demonstrate that impact to a jury.

A broken arm that heals in eight weeks produces a fundamentally different case value than a traumatic brain injury that alters the person's cognitive function permanently.

Collectability: Can the Defendant Pay?

A case may have strong liability and catastrophic damages, but if the defendant has no insurance and no assets, the practical recovery may be limited. Attorneys evaluate available insurance coverage — auto liability policies, umbrella policies, commercial policies — and the defendant's personal assets.

In cases involving commercial defendants — trucking companies, property owners, manufacturers — coverage limits are typically higher and collectability is less of a concern. In cases against individual defendants with minimum coverage, the policy limits may effectively cap the recovery.

Decision Analysis: Thinking in Probabilities

Sophisticated case evaluation goes beyond gut feeling. Attorneys trained in decision analysis assign probabilities to key variables and calculate expected values.

For example, consider a case where:

• There is an 80 percent chance the jury finds the defendant liable
• If liable, there is a 60 percent chance the jury awards $500,000 and a 40 percent chance it awards $200,000
• The expected trial value is: (0.80 × ((0.60 × $500,000) + (0.40 × $200,000))) = $304,000

This expected value is then compared against settlement offers to determine whether settling or proceeding to trial makes more economic sense.

This kind of analysis is not about reducing a human injury to cold mathematics. It is about making the best possible decision under uncertainty — which is what every lawsuit requires.

Factors That Increase Case Value

Several factors consistently push case values higher:

Clear, undisputed liability. When fault is obvious and well-documented, the defendant's leverage in negotiations diminishes.

Objective medical evidence. Injuries documented by imaging studies (MRIs, CT scans, X-rays), surgical records, and specialist diagnoses carry more weight than complaints without objective findings.

Consistent, thorough treatment. Following your treatment plan without gaps demonstrates that your injuries are serious and that you are taking your recovery seriously.

Sympathetic plaintiff. A hardworking parent of three who was following every traffic law when a distracted driver hit them presents differently to a jury than someone with a complicated background.

Strong witnesses. Credible eyewitnesses, family members who can describe the injury's impact, and experienced medical experts strengthen the case at every stage.

Permanent injury or disability. Injuries with lasting consequences — chronic pain, limited mobility, cognitive impairment — justify significantly higher damages than injuries that resolve completely.

Factors That Decrease Case Value

Certain factors reduce expected recovery:

Plaintiff comparative fault. Even under Missouri's pure comparative fault system, any fault attributed to you reduces the award proportionally.

Pre-existing conditions. If you had prior complaints about the same body part, the defense will argue that your current symptoms predate the accident. Medical evidence distinguishing old and new injuries becomes critical.

Gaps in treatment. Missing appointments or stopping treatment suggests your injuries were not severe. There may be legitimate reasons — inability to afford care, work schedule conflicts — but the gap will be used against you.

Inconsistent statements. Contradictions between your testimony, your medical records, and your social media activity undermine credibility.

Low insurance coverage. When the defendant carries only minimum liability coverage, practical recovery is capped regardless of the injury's severity.

Settlement Versus Trial: The Strategic Calculus

Most personal injury cases settle before trial. Settlement offers certainty: a guaranteed amount without the risk of a jury returning a lower verdict or finding no liability at all.

Trial offers the possibility of a higher award but carries risks: jury unpredictability, the costs of litigation, and the emotional toll of a courtroom proceeding.

The decision depends on the gap between the settlement offer and the expected trial value. If an insurance company offers $150,000 and the expected trial value is $160,000, the marginal increase may not justify the additional costs and uncertainty of trial. If the offer is $75,000 against a $300,000 expected value, trial becomes a much stronger option.

Your attorney should walk you through this analysis transparently, explaining the risks and rewards of each path.

The Timeline of Case Valuation

Case values are not static. They evolve as information develops:

Early stage (weeks 1-4). Initial assessment based on liability evidence and injury severity. Too early for a reliable valuation because the medical picture is incomplete.

Treatment phase (months 1-12). As treatment progresses and medical records accumulate, the damages picture sharpens. This is when economic damages crystallize.

Maximum medical improvement. Once your doctors determine that your condition has stabilized — meaning further significant improvement is unlikely — the case can be valued with much greater precision. This is typically the right time to pursue settlement.

Pre-trial discovery. Depositions, expert reports, and document exchange sometimes reveal information that significantly changes case value in either direction.

Verdict. The jury's decision is the final valuation. It may be higher or lower than any party expected.

FAQ

How long does it take to know what my case is worth?

A reliable case valuation typically requires reaching maximum medical improvement, which can take months to over a year depending on the injury. Your attorney can provide preliminary ranges earlier, but the most accurate assessment comes after the full medical picture is clear.

Do attorneys always recommend settling?

No. Experienced attorneys recommend settlement when the offer reflects the fair value of the case. If the insurance company's offer is unreasonably low, a good attorney will advise proceeding toward trial to achieve a just result.

What percentage do personal injury attorneys take?

Most Missouri personal injury attorneys work on contingency, meaning they receive a percentage of your recovery — typically 33 percent if the case settles before trial and 40 percent if it goes to trial. You pay nothing upfront, and if you do not recover, you do not owe attorney fees.

Can I negotiate directly with the insurance company?

You can, but insurance companies employ trained adjusters whose job is to minimize payouts. Without legal representation, you may not fully understand the value of your claim or the tactics being used against you.

What if the defendant does not have enough insurance?

If the defendant's coverage is insufficient to cover your damages, your own underinsured motorist coverage may provide additional compensation. Your attorney can identify all available sources of recovery.

Insurance companies have teams of lawyers. Level the playing field — call OTT Law at (314) 794-6900.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Every case is different. Contact OTT Law at (314) 794-6900 for a free consultation specific to your situation.