Settlement vs. Trial: Making the Right Decision

At some point in every personal injury case, you face a choice: accept a settlement offer or take your case to trial. This decision can mean the difference between receiving fair compensation and leaving money on the table — or, conversely, between a certain recovery and the risk of walking away with nothing.

Neither option is inherently better. The right choice depends on the specific facts of your case, the strength of your evidence, the adequacy of the settlement offer, and your personal tolerance for risk and uncertainty.

Why Most Cases Settle

Approximately 95 percent of personal injury cases in Missouri resolve through settlement rather than trial. This is not because settlements are always the best outcome — it is because settlement offers both parties something that trial cannot: certainty.

For the plaintiff, settlement guarantees a specific recovery without the risk of an unfavorable verdict. It also avoids the time, emotional toll, and expense of trial preparation and testimony.

For the defendant and their insurer, settlement eliminates the risk of a large jury verdict. Insurance companies make actuarial calculations, and they would rather pay a predictable amount than gamble on what twelve jurors might decide.

Settlement also saves time. A trial can take days or weeks, with months of preparation beforehand. Settlement can conclude a case in a single negotiation session.

When Settlement Makes Sense

Settlement is typically the right choice when:

The offer reflects fair value. If the insurance company offers an amount that reasonably compensates you for your economic losses, pain and suffering, and future consequences, accepting it avoids unnecessary risk.

Liability is contested. If the defendant has reasonable arguments that you were partially or fully at fault, a trial introduces the possibility that a jury assigns you significant comparative fault — or finds no liability at all. A fair settlement eliminates that risk.

The evidence has weaknesses. Every case has imperfections. If a key witness is unavailable, medical records contain gaps, or your social media activity could be used against you, settlement provides recovery without exposing those vulnerabilities to a jury.

The emotional cost is significant. Trials are stressful. Testifying about your injuries, being cross-examined, and waiting for a verdict can take a heavy emotional toll. For some plaintiffs, the certainty and closure of settlement outweigh the possibility of a higher trial award.

The defendant has limited coverage. If the defendant carries only the minimum $25,000 liability policy required under Missouri law, pursuing a trial for damages far exceeding that amount may not be practical unless the defendant has significant personal assets.

When Trial Makes Sense

Trial becomes the better option when:

The settlement offer is unreasonably low. If the insurance company refuses to offer compensation that reflects the true value of your injuries, trial may be the only path to a fair result. Some insurers deliberately lowball offers, betting that plaintiffs will accept rather than face the uncertainty of trial.

Liability is clear and strong. When fault is undisputed and well-documented — for example, a drunk driver who crossed the center line — the risk of an unfavorable liability finding is minimal. In these cases, the upside of trial often outweighs the uncertainty.

Damages are substantial. Cases involving catastrophic injuries, permanent disability, or wrongful death frequently recover more at trial than through settlement. Juries who see the full impact of a life-altering injury often award compensation that exceeds any pre-trial offer.

The case has powerful evidence. Compelling medical testimony, strong expert opinions, sympathetic witnesses, and clear documentation create trial conditions where the expected verdict exceeds the settlement offer by a significant margin.

A legal precedent matters. In some cases, taking a matter to trial serves a broader purpose beyond individual compensation — holding a negligent corporation accountable, establishing liability in a novel factual scenario, or sending a message that certain conduct will not be tolerated.

The Risk-Reward Calculation

Every trial involves risk. Even strong cases can produce unexpected results. A witness may perform poorly. A juror may disbelieve your doctor. The judge may exclude a piece of evidence you considered critical.

Disciplined case evaluation quantifies these risks. Your attorney should be able to articulate the expected trial value — a probability-weighted estimate of what a jury is likely to award — and compare it against the settlement offer.

Consider this simplified analysis:

| Scenario | Probability | Award | |----------|-------------|-------| | Jury finds full liability, high damages | 50% | $400,000 | | Jury finds liability, moderate damages | 30% | $200,000 | | Jury finds no liability | 20% | $0 |

Expected trial value: (0.50 × $400,000) + (0.30 × $200,000) + (0.20 × $0) = $260,000

If the settlement offer is $250,000, the marginal benefit of trial is small relative to the risk. If the offer is $100,000, trial is likely the better option.

This analysis does not capture everything — it does not account for the emotional cost of trial, the additional attorney fees, or the time value of receiving money sooner. But it provides a rational framework for an inherently uncertain decision.

What Happens at Trial

Understanding the trial process helps you evaluate whether you are prepared for it:

Jury selection. Both attorneys question potential jurors to identify biases and select a panel that will evaluate the evidence fairly. This process, called voir dire, typically takes half a day to a full day.

Opening statements. Each side presents an overview of their case. This is not evidence — it is a roadmap for what the jury will hear.

Plaintiff's case. Your attorney presents your evidence: your testimony, medical records, expert witnesses, photographs, and any other evidence supporting your claim. This is where the jury learns the full story of your injury and its impact.

Defendant's case. The defense presents its evidence, which may include their own expert witnesses, surveillance footage, and testimony challenging the severity of your injuries or the defendant's fault.

Cross-examination. Both sides have the opportunity to question the other side's witnesses. This is often where the case is won or lost.

Closing arguments. Each attorney summarizes the evidence and argues for a specific outcome. Your attorney will ask the jury for a specific dollar amount. The defense will argue for a lower figure or no liability.

Jury deliberation and verdict. The jury deliberates in private and returns a verdict. In Missouri civil cases, a verdict requires agreement by nine of twelve jurors.

The Attorney's Role in the Decision

Your attorney should never pressure you to settle or to go to trial. The decision is yours. But your attorney's role is to provide the information and analysis you need to make an informed choice:

• A clear assessment of liability strength and weaknesses
• A detailed damages calculation with supporting evidence
• An honest evaluation of the settlement offer against expected trial value
• An explanation of the risks, costs, and timeline of trial
• A recommendation based on professional experience, presented transparently

The best personal injury attorneys prepare every case as if it is going to trial, even when settlement is the most likely outcome. Insurance companies know the difference between attorneys who are ready to try a case and those who are not. That readiness is your strongest negotiating leverage.

FAQ

Can I change my mind after accepting a settlement?

In most cases, no. Once you sign a settlement agreement and release, it is binding. You cannot reopen your claim even if your condition worsens or you later believe the amount was insufficient. This is why careful evaluation before accepting is critical.

How long does a personal injury trial take in Missouri?

Most personal injury trials last three to five days. Complex cases involving multiple defendants, extensive expert testimony, or catastrophic injuries may take longer. The total timeline from filing suit to trial, including discovery and pre-trial preparation, can range from one to three years.

Will I have to testify at trial?

Almost certainly yes. As the plaintiff, your testimony about the accident, your injuries, and how those injuries have affected your life is central to your case. Your attorney will prepare you thoroughly for both direct examination and cross-examination.

What if the jury awards less than the settlement offer?

This is one of the primary risks of trial. If a jury awards less than the rejected settlement offer, you receive the lower amount. There is no opportunity to go back and accept the earlier offer. This risk is factored into the decision analysis.

Do I pay more in attorney fees if my case goes to trial?

Most contingency fee agreements in Missouri provide for a higher percentage if the case goes to trial — typically 40 percent compared to 33 percent for pre-trial settlement. Your attorney should explain the fee structure clearly before you make your decision.

Insurance companies have teams of lawyers. Level the playing field — call OTT Law at (314) 794-6900.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Every case is different. Contact OTT Law at (314) 794-6900 for a free consultation specific to your situation.